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Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 12A
2024-11-16 18:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 161752 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...SARA NOW MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 86.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 86.8 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 4 mph (6 km/h) and a somewhat faster motion west-northwestward is expected to begin this afternoon which should continue into Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move into the Gulf of Honduras this afternoon before approaching Belize tonight. Sara should move onshore over Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and Sunday before landfall in Belize, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to open up into a trough on Sunday night or Monday as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure measured by aircraft dropsonde observations is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-16 18:27:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 161727 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Sara, located near the Bay Islands of Honduras. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-16 18:25:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 161724 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM PST Sat Nov 16 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Central Portion of the East Pacific: An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for some slow development of this system over the next couple of days while it moves slowly east-northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
2024-11-16 15:43:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 14:43:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 14:43:39 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 12
2024-11-16 15:42:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 161442 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Satellite imagery depicts that the center of Sara is located near the Bay Islands of Honduras. The overall convective structure is fairly disorganized, with a broken curved band on the northwest side, and less convection near the center of circulation. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased this advisory, although the initial intensity is held steady at 40 kt, based on earlier scatterometer data showing 35-40 knots over the western semicircle. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system, which should help better determine the structure and intensity. The storm appears to have started to drift west-northwestward with an estimated motion of 290/02 kt. A mid-level ridge should strengthen to the northeast of Sara later today, which is forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-northwest through Sunday, with a slight increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the system should make landfall in Belize just beyond the 24 h forecast point. After landfall, Sara or its remnants should turn northwestward as it moves across the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest NHC forecast track is similar to the previous and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The current intensity forecast is for the system to hold steady through landfall which is in good agreement with the intensity guidance. Although, some intensity fluctuations are possible as Sara moves over the Gulf of Honduras and approaches Belize during the next 24 h. After landfall, the storm will weaken and models are in good agreement that it should dissipate and open into a trough over the Yucatan Peninsula before reaching the Bay of Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico. Based on this model guidance, the intensity forecast shows dissipation at 60 h, although that could occur sooner. The remnants of Sara could interact with a frontal system to enhance convection near the northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part of next week. The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 16.3N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.4N 86.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 16.9N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/1200Z 19.2N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2024-11-16 15:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 161442 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 13 33(46) 5(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) BELIZE CITY 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 12
2024-11-16 15:41:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 161441 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 86.5W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 86.5W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 86.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.4N 86.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.9N 88.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 86.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-16 15:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SARA DRIFTING NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 9:00 AM CST Sat Nov 16 the center of Sara was located near 16.3, -86.5 with movement WNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 12
2024-11-16 15:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 161441 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...SARA DRIFTING NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 86.5W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion is expected today, with a faster motion toward the west-northwest and northwest expected on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the Bay Islands of Honduras today before approaching Belize tonight, and then moving onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and Sunday before landfall in Belize, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to dissipate Sunday night or Monday as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
2024-11-16 12:47:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 11:47:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 09:22:51 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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