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Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
2024-11-15 13:13:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2024 12:13:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2024 09:22:52 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-15 13:13:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF BELIZE... As of 6:15 AM CST Fri Nov 15 the center of Sara was located near 16.1, -85.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Update Statement
2024-11-15 13:13:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 615 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 151213 TCUAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 615 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF BELIZE... The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for its coastline from Placencia northward to Belize City. SUMMARY OF 615 AM CST...1215 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 85.5W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 7A
2024-11-15 12:59:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 151159 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 600 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 ...SARA NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 85.5W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has extended the Tropical Storm Warning westward from Punta Sal to the border of Honduras and Guatemala. The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from the border of Honduras and Guatemala westward to Punta Barrios. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The entire northern coast of Honduras * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The northern coast of Guatemala from the Honduras/Guatemala border westward to Puerto Barrios A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings will likely be required for portions of the coast of Belize later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 85.5 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next day or so. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then approach the coast of Belize early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days if the center of Sara remains over water to the north of Honduras. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras and Guatemala during the next couple of days. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras and Guatemala. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-15 12:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 151134 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Sara, located near the northern coast of Honduras. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-15 12:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 151133 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM PST Fri Nov 15 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
2024-11-15 09:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2024 08:46:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2024 09:22:52 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-11-15 09:45:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150845 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 There hasnt been much observational data near the center of Sara overnight and early this morning aside from the 1-minute GOES-16 data, which shows a large area of deep convection across northern Honduras and over the Gulf of Honduras. Belize radar has provided some information, but the center is still just beyond the range of this radar, and there aren't any surface observations near the center either. Finding the center has been challenging overnight. Recent GOES-16 imagery shows increased mid-level rotation over water about 40 miles north of the advisory position, but there is no evidence of any low-level center re-formation at this time. The initial position is based on a combination of the satellite imagery and continuity from the previous NHC forecast. The initial intensity estimate remains unchanged from the previous advisory at 40 kt. Sara is estimated to be moving westward or 280/8 kt. A mid-level ridge positioned to the NW of Sara over the Gulf of Mexico should cause Sara to slow down today. The mid-level ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward toward Florida late in the weekend, allowing for Sara to turn west-northwestward by late Saturday across the Gulf of Honduras before approaching the coast of Belize early Sunday. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the track, and the new NHC track forecast is mostly an update of the previous prediction and lies close to the various consensus aids. While environmental and oceanic conditions are favorable for some strengthening, Sara's relatively broad structure and proximity to land are likely to prevent significant intensification during the next 24 hours. Slight strengthening is then forecast while the system is farther offshore before it approaches Belize. The bulk of the model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. After Sara moves inland over Belize on Sunday, it should quickly weaken while moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC forecast calls for dissipation beyond 72 hours, as in the previous forecast. While most of the global models still indicate that Sara is unlikely to survive its trek across the Yucatan Peninsula, some leftover low-level vorticity from Sara's remnants should merge with an elongated trough or front over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Given the strong wind shear and cooler waters, no tropical redevelopment is expected over the Gulf of Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause potentially catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where tropical storm warnings are in effect. 4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 16.0N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 16.0N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 16.0N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 16.2N 86.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 17.0N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0600Z 17.9N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-15 09:44:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SARA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 3:00 AM CST Fri Nov 15 the center of Sara was located near 16.0, -85.1 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 7
2024-11-15 09:44:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 150844 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 ...SARA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 85.1W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Watches or Warnings will likely be required for portions of the coast of Belize later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 85.1 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next day or so. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then approach the coast of Belize early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days when the center of Sara moves over water to the north of Honduras. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras during the next couple of days. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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