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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Graphics
2024-11-14 03:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 02:35:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 03:22:59 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-14 03:34:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 10:00 PM EST Wed Nov 13 the center of Nineteen was located near 16.1, -80.2 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Public Advisory Number 2
2024-11-14 03:34:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 140234 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 80.2W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Sal eastward to the border with Nicaragua and for the Bay Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, and in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 80.2 West. The system is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow westward motion should continue for another day or two, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and continue strengthening, if it remains over water. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning late Thursday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2024-11-14 03:34:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 140234 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 7(17) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 9(21) 9(30) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 6(22) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) GUANAJA 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 19(37) 15(52) 7(59) 2(61) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 4(21) 3(24) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MANAGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) S SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) TEGUCIGALPA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2024-11-14 03:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024 612 WTNT24 KNHC 140233 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 80.2W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 80.2W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.1N 82.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.2N 83.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.2N 85.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 85.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.9N 85.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 16.6N 86.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 19.3N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 80.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-14 00:54:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
257 ABNT20 KNHC 132341 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, located over the central Caribbean Sea. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-14 00:50:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
004 ABPZ20 KNHC 132340 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM PST Wed Nov 13 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Graphics
2024-11-14 00:31:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Nov 2024 23:31:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Nov 2024 21:22:56 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-14 00:31:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 7:00 PM EST Wed Nov 13 the center of Nineteen was located near 16.1, -79.5 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Public Advisory Number 1A
2024-11-14 00:31:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 132330 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 700 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 79.5W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 79.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow westward motion should continue for another day or two, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and continue strengthening, if it remains over water. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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