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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-11 00:01:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 102301 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM PST Sun Nov 10 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 30
2024-11-10 21:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 102032 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 The limited convection that Rafael was producing in its eastern semicircle has collapsed. Surface observations, visible satellite images, and a 1530z ASCAT-C pass show the surface circulation has become poorly defined and very elongated in the north-south direction. Since Rafael does not possess a well-defined center or organized convection, it no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. This will be the final NHC advisory on Rafael. The remnant low is expected to drift eastward over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight, then turn toward the south and southwest on Monday and Tuesday. The forecast calls for dissipation by Tuesday night, but this could occur even sooner if current trends continue. The elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast will likely continue into Monday. For more information, see products from your local NWS forecast office. Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Key Messages: 1. Swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 26.1N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 11/0600Z 25.8N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1800Z 25.1N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 24.1N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 23.2N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-10 21:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM CST Sun Nov 10 the center of Rafael was located near 26.1, -91.3 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 30
2024-11-10 21:31:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 102031 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.3W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.3W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.8N 90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.1N 90.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.1N 91.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 91.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON RAFAEL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-10 18:17:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 101716 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Near the Bahamas (AL98): Shower activity has diminished near a trough of low pressure located near the central Bahamas. This system is located within an unfavorable environment, and development is not expected. However, locally gusty winds are still possible as the system moves generally westward across the Bahamas through tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-10 18:14:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 101714 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM PST Sun Nov 10 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Graphics
2024-11-10 15:35:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 14:35:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 15:23:45 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 29
2024-11-10 15:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 101434 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Convection has continued to weaken this morning and move farther away to the east of the low-level center. Rafaels remaining convection is all located more than 75 miles east-northeast of the center. A recent observation of a 33-kt 1-min wind from buoy 42001 indicates that Rafael still likely has tropical-storm-force winds. Gradual weakening is expected to continue because Rafael is located within a very dry environment, which is forecast to become even drier over the next 24 to 36 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the intensity guidance. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model suggests that Rafael should lose its convection and become a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 h. Rafael is expected to become a remnant low either tonight or on Monday. Rafael has been drifting toward the north-northwest, or 345/3 kt. Rafael will remain over the Gulf of Mexico as it spins down over the next couple of days, performing a small clockwise loop over the central Gulf of Mexico through Monday in weak steering currents, before being pushed southward and southwestward by the low-level flow on Tuesday. The latest NHC track forecast lies close to the consensus models, and only minor tweaks were made to the previous NHC track forecast. The NHC forecast calls for the remnant low of Rafael to open up into a trough and dissipate by mid-week, and this solution is also shown by the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast, and this will likely continue into Monday before subsiding on Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 26.3N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.4N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 25.9N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 25.0N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 24.1N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 23.8N 92.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-10 15:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... As of 9:00 AM CST Sun Nov 10 the center of Rafael was located near 26.3, -91.9 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 29
2024-11-10 15:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 101433 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 ...RAFAEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 91.9W ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 91.9 West. Rafael is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. A few hours ago, NOAA buoy 42001 over the central Gulf of Mexico recorded a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a gust of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the remainder of this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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