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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-10 06:14:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
554 ABPZ20 KNHC 100514 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM PST Sat Nov 9 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Graphics
2024-11-10 03:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 02:34:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 03:22:53 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 27
2024-11-10 03:32:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100232 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Rafael remains sheared this evening, with the remaining convection located to the northeast of the exposed low-level center. The circulation center itself is broad and appears to have multiple small vorticity center embedded in it. The initial intensity is decreased to 40 kt based on a blend of the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. These winds are likely occurring in the area of convection northeast of the center and northwest of buoy 42001. The initial motion is now a slow 325/3. during the next 36 h or so, Rafael should make a small clockwise loop over the central Gulf of Mexico. After that time, the low-level flow should steer the cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward. One change in the track guidance is that that the GFS and HWRF models turn the system move westward after 60 h and wind up to the north of the rest of the guidance. Overall, the new forecast track is little changed from the previous track and lies near the consensus models. Rafael should continue to weaken due to a combination of southwesterly shear and dry air entrainment. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF continue to indicate that the associated convection will dissipate between 24-36 h, with the circulation becoming elongated. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 36 h, with final dissipation by 120 h as suggested by most of the global models. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 25.7N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 26.0N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 26.0N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 25.3N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 24.0N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 22.8N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 21.4N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-10 03:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL REMAINS SHEARED AND DISORGANIZED... As of 9:00 PM CST Sat Nov 9 the center of Rafael was located near 25.7, -91.7 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 27
2024-11-10 03:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100231 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 ...RAFAEL REMAINS SHEARED AND DISORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 91.7W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 91.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected through early next week, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to lead to 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts to 10 inches, across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to potentially significant flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-10 00:17:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 092317 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Near the Bahamas: A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles east of the central Bahamas is associated with a trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next day or so before it moves into unfavorable environmental conditions on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible as it moves generally westward across the Bahamas through Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-10 00:12:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
932 ABPZ20 KNHC 092312 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM PST Sat Nov 9 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Graphics
2024-11-09 21:58:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 20:58:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 21:22:54 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 26
2024-11-09 21:58:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092057 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 The center of Rafael has become exposed to the southwest of its associated convective mass in visible satellite images. The low-level circulation is becoming broader and less defined, and the cold overcast from the sheared convection has contracted and warmed this afternoon. Overall, the storm appears less organized as it contends with westerly shear and a dry mid-level environment. A partial ASCAT pass showed 35-40 kt winds in the northeast quadrant, but may not have sampled the area of strongest winds. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is consistent with a blend of the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The storm should continue weakening tonight due to the negative effects of increasing westerly shear and continued intrusions of dry mid-level air. In fact, the latest simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Rafael could become devoid of convection as early as Sunday. The official NHC forecast now shows post-tropical/remnant low status at 36 h, but further timing adjustments could be necessary if current trends continue. Rafael is beginning to slow down (300/4 kt), and the storm is likely to meander within weakening steering currents over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday. Then, the shallow vortex should become steered by the prevailing low-level flow on Monday and move toward the south and south-southwest through the middle of next week. Most of the guidance shows the remnant low spinning down and opening into a trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late in the 5-day forecast period, and the NHC forecast shows dissipation by 120 h. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 25.5N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 25.7N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 26.0N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 25.7N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 24.6N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 23.3N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 22.2N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z 21.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 26
2024-11-09 21:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 092057 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 91.7W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 91.7W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.7N 91.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.0N 91.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.7N 91.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.6N 91.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.3N 92.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.2N 93.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.0N 95.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 91.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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