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Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2024-11-09 21:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 092057 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-09 21:57:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SHEARED RAFAEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... As of 3:00 PM CST Sat Nov 9 the center of Rafael was located near 25.5, -91.7 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 26
2024-11-09 21:57:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 092056 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 ...SHEARED RAFAEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 91.7W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 91.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The storm is expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected through early next week. Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to lead to 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts to 10 inches, across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to potentially significant flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-09 18:21:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 091720 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Near the Bahamas: A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles east of the central Bahamas is associated with a trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next day or so before it moves into unfavorable environmental conditions on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible as it moves generally westward across the Bahamas through Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-09 18:13:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 091713 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM PST Sat Nov 9 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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