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Remnants of Sara Graphics
2024-11-18 09:32:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2024 08:32:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2024 08:32:31 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Remnants of Sara Forecast Discussion Number 19
2024-11-18 09:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180831 TCDAT4 Remnants Of Sara Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Sara no longer has a well organized circulation, and therefore has degenerated into a trough of low pressure. The trough is beginning to emerge back over water in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit tropical development, the remnant vorticity and moisture could interact with an approaching frontal system and contribute to heavy rainfall along the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. This is the last NHC advisory on Sara. For more information on the ongoing rainfall threat in southern Mexico/Central America and the expected heavy rainfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast, see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 19.0N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Remnants of Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2024-11-18 09:31:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 180831 PWSAT4 REMNANTS OF SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2024 AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF SARA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Remnants of Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-18 09:30:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SARA DISSIPATES... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 3:00 AM CST Mon Nov 18 the center of Sara was located near 19.0, -91.5 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Remnants of Sara Public Advisory Number 19
2024-11-18 09:30:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 180830 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Sara Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 ...SARA DISSIPATES... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 91.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the remnants of Sara were located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 91.5 West. The remnants are moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, the remnants of Sara are expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Sara. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Remnants of Sara Forecast Advisory Number 19
2024-11-18 09:30:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 180830 TCMAT4 REMNANTS OF SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 91.5W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 91.5W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 91.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 91.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SARA $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-18 06:05:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 180505 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM PST Sun Nov 17 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds while it moves southeastward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-18 06:04:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 180504 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Sara, located inland over the southwestern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Sara Graphics
2024-11-18 03:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2024 02:36:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2024 03:22:40 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Sara Forecast Discussion Number 18
2024-11-18 03:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180233 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Sara Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Satellite data and radar images from Sabancuy, Mexico, show a small area of convection persists near and to the west of the estimated low-level center of Sara tonight. Surface observations are sparse in the region, but the circulation is likely still closed given the satellite presentation of the system. Based on available surface wind data, the initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt. Sara is still moving west-northwestward (300/11 kt) and should maintain this heading overnight. Convection associated with Sara is expected to collapse overnight with continued land interaction. Sara should degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low soon and open into a trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. While strong upper-level winds over the western Gulf are expected to inhibit tropical development, the remnant vorticity and moisture could interact with an approaching frontal system and contribute to heavy rainfall along the northern Gulf coast early this week. For more information, see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center. In addition, the threat of heavy rainfall, life-threatening flash flooding, and mudslides continues for portions of Central America and southern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Sara is winding down across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding impacts will continue. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 18.1N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 19.3N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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