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Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 15
2024-11-17 09:30:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 170830 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 87.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 87.8 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will make landfall in Belize late this morning or around midday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall. Weakening is forecast after the storm moves inland, and dissipation is expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 40 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area in portions of Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 15
2024-11-17 09:30:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 170830 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 87.8W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 87.8W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 88.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 87.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-17 06:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 170533 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM PST Sat Nov 16 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Central Portion of the East Pacific: A weak and elongated area of low pressure located about 500 miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur over the next day or two while it moves slowly eastward or east-northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-17 06:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 170532 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Sara, located near the coast of Belize. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
2024-11-17 06:31:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 05:31:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 03:22:48 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-17 06:31:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SARA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 12:00 AM CST Sun Nov 17 the center of Sara was located near 16.6, -87.6 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
2024-11-17 03:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 02:32:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 03:22:48 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-17 03:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE THREAT CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 9:00 PM CST Sat Nov 16 the center of Sara was located near 16.5, -87.3 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-17 00:45:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR SARA... ...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE THREAT REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 6:00 PM CST Sat Nov 16 the center of Sara was located near 16.5, -87.2 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 13A
2024-11-17 00:45:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 162345 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 600 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR SARA... ...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE THREAT REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 87.2W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WNW OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 87.2 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue until landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will approach Belize tonight before moving onshore over Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected before landfall in Belize on Sunday, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to open up into a trough on Sunday night or Monday as its remnants move into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in portions of Honduras through early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning late tonight. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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