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Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 13
2024-11-16 21:41:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 162041 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 87.0W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 87.0W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.1N 88.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.5N 90.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 87.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 13
2024-11-16 21:41:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 162041 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...SARA IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS SLIDING TOWARDS BELIZE... ...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 87.0W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 87.0 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue until landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will approach Belize tonight before moving onshore over Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected before landfall in Belize on Sunday, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to open up into a trough on Sunday night or Monday as its remnants move into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from aircraft dropsonde observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in portions of Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning tonight. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-16 21:41:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SARA IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS SLIDING TOWARDS BELIZE... ...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 3:00 PM CST Sat Nov 16 the center of Sara was located near 16.4, -87.0 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
2024-11-16 18:53:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 17:53:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 15:22:57 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 12A
2024-11-16 18:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 161752 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...SARA NOW MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 86.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 86.8 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 4 mph (6 km/h) and a somewhat faster motion west-northwestward is expected to begin this afternoon which should continue into Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move into the Gulf of Honduras this afternoon before approaching Belize tonight. Sara should move onshore over Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and Sunday before landfall in Belize, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to open up into a trough on Sunday night or Monday as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure measured by aircraft dropsonde observations is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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