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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-27 19:52:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 271752 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Helene, located inland over the southern Appalachians, on Hurricane Isaac, located over the central Subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on recently-formed Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Tropical Atlantic Ocean. Western Caribbean: An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development thereafter while the system moves generally northwestward, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure could form over the eastern tropical Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development thereafter while the system moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Rosado
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm John (EP5/EP102024)
2024-09-27 19:50:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JOHN MAKES LANDFALL... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM CST Fri Sep 27 the center of John was located near 18.3, -103.2 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm John Public Advisory Number 19A
2024-09-27 19:50:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 271750 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 ...JOHN MAKES LANDFALL... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 103.2W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 103.2 West. John is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move along the coast of southwestern Mexico today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected today, with a faster rate of weakening forecast by tonight as the center continues to interact with the higher terrain of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Saturday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with locally over 10 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally over 6 inches are expected today across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca.the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across coastal portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight into Saturday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics