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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-29 07:22:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 290522 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaac, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Azores, and on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during the early or middle part of this week while the system moves toward the west and then northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week. This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Isaac Graphics
2024-09-29 04:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 02:35:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 02:35:35 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 13
2024-09-29 04:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290234 TCDAT5 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 Isaac continues to weaken tonight. Southwesterly shear and intrusions of drier mid-level air have eroded convection over the southern portion of the hurricane, and there is no longer a coherent eye feature in satellite images. A partial scatterometer pass shows a frontal zone in close proximity to the east of Isaac, signaling extratropical transition could begin soon. A blend of the TAFB and SAB Dvorak Current Intensity estimates with objective UW-CIMSS estimates supports lowering the intensity to 70 kt. As Isaac moves deeper into the mid-latitudes, it will cross even cooler waters and encounter increasing deep-layer shear. Thus, continued weakening is likely, and Isaac is expected to lose tropical characteristics soon and complete extratropical transition by Monday while becoming entangled with a nearby frontal system. The updated NHC forecast shows a faster rate of weakening in the near term. The wind radii of Isaac are likely to become increasingly asymmetric as the cyclone takes on frontal characteristics. Isaac is moving northeastward at about 13 kt. This general motion should continue for the next couple of days while Isaac remains embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow. The storm is forecast to turn more north-northeastward by midweek as an upper-level trough digs to the west of Isaac. There is more track spread in the guidance related to this interaction, and the extratropical portion of the NHC track forecast was adjusted slightly to the right of the previous prediction, following the latest multi-model consensus trends. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 42.1N 37.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 43.1N 36.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 44.2N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 30/1200Z 45.4N 30.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/0000Z 47.1N 28.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/1200Z 49.2N 27.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0000Z 51.1N 26.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0000Z 55.0N 24.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0000Z 58.0N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics