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Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 15
2024-09-27 04:57:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 270257 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 83.9W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......240NE 270SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 340SE 420SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 83.9W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 84.3W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.9N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...220NE 260SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.9N 86.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.8N 87.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.9N 86.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.1N 86.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 83.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2024-09-27 04:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 02:46:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 03:29:49 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-09-27 04:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 270242 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2024 Isaac's structure has quickly improved this evening on satellite imagery. Deeper cold convection down to -60 C has been fully wrapping around the center, and the last few frames show a warm spot, which could very well be a formative eye. While the subjective Dvorak classifications hasn't changed much this evening, the objective estimates, especially DPRINT and DMINT from UW-CIMSS have increased to 54 and 51 kt respectively. Similar to last night, a late arriving set of scatterometer passes showed a tight vortex with derived-winds up to 49 kt. Assuming some undersampling of the small circulation, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt this advisory. Isaac appears to have made a wobble south of due east earlier this evening, but more recently has resumed an eastward motion at 90/10 kt. This motion with a gradual turn to the east-northeast should occur over the next couple of days. Afterwards, the forward motion of Isaac is likely to become very critical to its future track trajectory. The poleward shift in the guidance that started earlier today has continued, possibly due to the slower forecasted forward motion of the storm, making it more likely to be captured by an upstream mid-latitude trough digging in from the west. The latest NHC track forecast has continued the northward shift started on the prior cycle, but is still not as far north and east as the bulk of the guidance suite, and further adjustments in that direction may be needed in future forecasts. Given the improvement in Isaac's structure this evening, it's looking increasingly likely the storm will soon become a hurricane. Vertical wind shear remains under 20 kt while sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) between 26-27 C for the next 24 h should allow additional intensification. After that time, shear begins to increase more as SSTs also begin to cool. These factors are expected to result in a leveling off in intensity, though cold upper-level temperatures should maintain enough instability to keep moderate to deep convection near the system. By 72 h, weakening should begin, with extratropical transition likely to be underway, finishing sometime early next week over the high-latitudes of the North Atlantic. The latest NHC intensity forecast is above much of the guidance in the short-term due to recent satellite trends, but falls back towards the reliable HCCA consensus aid after 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 37.1N 49.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 37.1N 47.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 38.1N 44.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 39.5N 40.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 41.1N 37.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 42.6N 36.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 43.7N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 46.0N 30.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0000Z 50.0N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics