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Hurricane Helene Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2024-09-27 04:59:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 02:59:51 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Helene Public Advisory Number 15
2024-09-27 04:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 270258 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...HURRICANE HELENE VERY CLOSE TO MAKING LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...ACCOMPANIED BY A CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 83.9W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Mexico Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas * Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 83.9 West. Helene is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight, taking the center over Georgia. The center of the hurricane should make landfall very soon in the Big Bend region of Florida. After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Helene is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected after Helene moves inland, but the fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). A sustained wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) with a gust to 84 mph (135 km/h) was recently reported at Cedar Key, Florida. A gust of 83 mph (134 km/h) was recently reported at Steinhatchee, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 938 mb (27.70 inches). A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge located on Cedar Key recently reported a water level of 7.33 feet above mean higher high water. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area. When the eye passes over, people are reminded to not venture out into the relative calm, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly when the eye passes. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in southern and central Florida, and these conditions will continue spreading northward across the tropical storm warning areas in the Southeastern U.S. through early Friday. Strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, will likely penetrate as far inland as the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. RAINFALL: Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes continues tonight through early Friday morning over parts of north/central Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. The tornado risk will persist Friday across the Carolinas and southern Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2024-09-27 04:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 270258 PWSAT4 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) LITTLE RIVER 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) ATLANTA GA 34 92 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) AUGUSTA GA 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SAVANNAH GA 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WAYCROSS GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WAYCROSS GA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GAINESVILLE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 50 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALBANY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALBANY GA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALBANY GA 64 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) COLUMBUS GA 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) MACON GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MACON GA 50 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) DOTHAN AL 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics