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Hurricane Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 14
2024-09-29 10:39:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290839 TCDAT5 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 900 AM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 The strong deep-layer shear and sub-24C sea surface temperatures continue to disrupt Isaac's cloud pattern, although recent images show a small burst of deep convection developing near the surface center. The outer convective curve bands are diminishing and have dissipated in the east semicircle of the cyclone. Based on the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates and a UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis, the initial intensity is set at 70 kt. Decreasing oceanic surface temperatures and a sharp increase in west-southwesterly vertical shear support further weakening as an extratropical cyclone through day 5. Isaac could lose what remains of its organized deep convection later tonight and become a post-tropical cyclone, as suggested by the global model simulated/IR forecast. In any event, extratropical transition is anticipated by Monday evening due to baroclinic forcing from a middle-latitude trough and the proximity of a frontal boundary. Isaac's initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/11 kt as it continues to be steered by the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. A turn toward the north-northeast by the middle part of this week is forecast in response to a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the cyclone from the west-northwest. Around the 72 hr period, Isaac should turn northward while moving around the eastern periphery of a larger baroclinic low-pressure system. An adjustment slightly to the right of the previous track advisory is again needed beyond the 24 hr period to conform with the latest consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 42.6N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 43.5N 34.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 44.5N 31.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 30/1800Z 46.0N 28.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/0600Z 47.8N 26.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/1800Z 49.9N 25.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0600Z 52.0N 24.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0600Z 56.4N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0600Z 60.3N 16.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 8
2024-09-29 10:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 948 WTNT41 KNHC 290839 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 Strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, associated with an upper-level trough over the central subtropical Atlantic, continues to impact the tropical storm. Although deep convection has been intermittently redeveloping near the center, the persistent shear is displacing this shower and thunderstorm activity to the north and northeast of the mostly exposed circulation center. The advisory intensity estimate is held at 40 kt, in agreement with the most recent scatterometer data. This is also supported by a blend of subjective and objective estimates. Center fixes indicate that the motion remains about the same, or at around 305/8 kt. An amplifying mid-level trough over the east-central Atlantic should cause Joyce to turn northward during the next day or so. If Joyce maintains some vertical depth in 2-3 days, it could accelerate north-northeastward ahead of the trough around that time. The official track forecast is the same as the previous NHC prediction and close to the model consensus. Over the next couple of days, Joyce is expected to remain in an environment of strong southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear and an increasingly dry low- to mid-level air mass. Therefore, weakening is anticipated and the system will probably degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 2-3 days. This is consistent with the global model predictions. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 21.3N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 22.0N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 22.7N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 23.4N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 24.5N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 25.6N 48.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z 26.8N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT1/AL112024)
2024-09-29 10:38:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Joyce was located near 21.3, -48.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics