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2024-09-27 10:54:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 08:54:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 08:54:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2024-09-27 10:54:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 270854 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) LITTLE RIVER 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ATLANTA GA 34 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) AUGUSTA GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WAYCROSS GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GAINESVILLE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALBANY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COLUMBUS GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MACON GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MACON GA 50 39 X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) MACON GA 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 16
2024-09-27 10:53:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 467 WTNT34 KNHC 270853 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 ...HELENE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER GEORGIA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.8N 83.0W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF MACON GEORGIA ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SE OF ATLANTA GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings have been discontinued along the Florida east coast south of the Flagler/Volusia county line, and along the Florida west coast south of the mouth of the Suwannee River. The Hurricane Warning for the Florida coast from the mouth of the Suwannee Rover to Mexico Beach has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Florida Gulf coast west of Indian Pass. The Storm Surge Warning for the Florida coast has been discontinued west of Indian Pass and south of Bonita Beach. The Hurricane Watch for the Florida West coast has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Bonita Beach * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The mouth of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass * The Flagler/Volusia county line northward to Little River Inlet A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 83.0 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 30 mph (48 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected this morning, taking the center over central and northeastern Georgia. After that, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley later today and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Helene is expected to become a post-tropical low this afternoon or tonight. However, the fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) mainly to the east of the center. The Marine Corp Air Station at Beaufort, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 75 mph (120 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...5-10 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...4-7 ft Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-6 ft Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring from northern Florida through eastern Georgia into southern South Carolina, and these conditions will continue spreading northward across the tropical storm warning areas in the Southeastern U.S. through today. Strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, will likely penetrate as far inland as the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. RAINFALL: Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant and record river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible this morning over parts of eastern Georgia, and through this afternoon over the Carolinas and southern Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics