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Hurricane Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2024-09-27 16:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 927 FONT15 KNHC 271433 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
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Tropical Storm John Graphics
2024-09-27 16:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 14:34:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 14:34:08 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 19
2024-09-27 16:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 281 WTPZ45 KNHC 271433 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 John's satellite depiction has banding mainly concentrated on the southern semicircle. The center of the system is very near or just touching the coast of southwestern Mexico. There continues to be burst of convection within the curved bands to the south of the center, and GLM data depicts plenty of lightning within the bands. The various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 55 kt. Given the satellite presentation will lean to the higher side of these estimates, with an initial intensity for this advisory at 50 kt. The center of John is right along the coast, and gradual weakening should continue as the storm moves inland or moves along the coastline. Later today, the high mountainous terrain will disrupt the low-level circulation and a faster rate of weakening should ensue. Beyond the next 24 h, the forecast is highly dependent if the center of John survives the interaction with land, and could dissipate sooner than what is currently forecast. If the surface center remains intact and doesn't dissipate, the remnants should re-emerge over the water in a few days, although models do not show regeneration and keep the system as a remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA and simple consensus aids. John's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/3 kt, and a turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast, provided John survives its interaction with mountainous terrain. The track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and lies to the right of the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 2. John is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions across portions of the Tropical Storm Warnings area through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.8N 103.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1200Z 19.4N 105.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 20.4N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics