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Hurricane John Forecast Advisory Number 15
2024-09-26 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 261438 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 102.7W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 120SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 360SE 300SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 102.7W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.0N 102.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 120SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.6N 103.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 80SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.2N 104.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 102.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-09-26 16:37:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 261437 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2024 Isaac's structure has remained mostly steady state during the past 6 hours. Cloud tops associated with the tropical storm are still not particularly cold, but as noted in previous discussions, this is not unexpected for its synoptic environment. A blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB plus objective estimates from UW-CIMSS still supports an intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. For the next 48-60 h, the track forecast appears to be mostly straightforward. All reliable guidance indicates that Isaac will continue moving eastward to east-northeastward with a mid-latitude trough during that period. However, there is a significant bifurcation in the dynamical models after that. A majority of the guidance, including most of the ECMWF ensemble, indicate that Isaac will turn back eastward, continuing with the mid-latitude flow associated with another deep-layer trough. However, a few members of the global ensembles, plus the deterministic GFS, indicate Isaac could move slightly slower, which could cause the tropical storm to interact with a different trough, currently located over eastern Canada. This may cause the tropical cyclone to move northward after 60 h, on a very different track. The NHC forecast treats the GFS as an outlier, and is instead near the consensus of the remaining guidance. It is therefore very similar to the previous forecast. However, confidence in this forecast is particularly low, and we can't rule out needing to make an unusually large change to later forecasts. Isaac appears to be in an environment that should be generally conducive for some strengthening, especially during the next day or two. After that, unusually cold upper-tropospheric temperatures could help sustain the tropical cyclone for a while, even as it moves over colder SSTs in the 24-25 deg C. By the end of the forecast period, much colder SSTs and a dramatic increase in shear should cause Isaac to become post-tropical. No changes of note were made to the NHC forecast, which still shows Isaac reaching hurricane strength during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 37.3N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 37.4N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 37.9N 46.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 38.7N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 39.9N 39.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 41.2N 36.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 42.3N 33.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 43.5N 25.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 43.5N 18.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2024-09-26 16:37:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 261437 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Category: Transportation and Logistics