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Hurricane John Forecast Discussion Number 15
2024-09-26 16:39:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 261439 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 John continues to depict a small inner core, with earlier microwave images depicting a small eye feature. Since that microwave pass, the eye feature has become more prevalent on infrared imagery. The UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance ranges from 65 to 75 kt. The subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 65 kt, respectively. Using a blend of the intensity estimates and the continued improved satellite depiction, the intensity is set at 65 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is estimated to be moving northwestward at 310/5 kt. The official forecast is shifted slightly to the right in the near term, which follows recent satellite trends and lies near the latest HCCA consensus aid. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland later today. However, some of the global model fields do linger the system offshore near the coast a little longer, particularly the ECMWF global model. In the long term, a turn back to the west-northwest is anticipated as the system weakens and is steered by the ridge over northern Mexico. The overall environment remains favorable for John to continue to strengthen until landfall with very warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, abundant moisture throughout all levels of the atmosphere. The latest NHC intensity forecast continues to call for strengthening up until landfall and shows a peak intensity of 75 kt, which is slightly lower than previous intensity peak due to the latest forecast showing the system moving inland a little faster than the previous forecast. John has very large rain shield and flooding impacts will extend well outside where the system makes landfall. It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 2. John is forecast to continue strengthening up until landfall, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are imminent. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for portions of the area and tropical storm are ongoing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 17.5N 102.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.0N 102.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST 24H 27/1200Z 18.6N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0000Z 19.2N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z 20.5N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane John (EP5/EP102024)
2024-09-26 16:39:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE JOHN IS PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Sep 26 the center of John was located near 17.5, -102.7 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane John Public Advisory Number 15
2024-09-26 16:39:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 261439 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 ...HURRICANE JOHN IS PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 102.7W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 18 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 102.7 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion should continue through the remainder of today. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland on later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until the center moves along the coast or inland later today, which should cause John to quickly weaken to a depression Friday Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall o 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches expected across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the hurricane warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later within a few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should continue through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics