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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2024-09-27 16:36:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 271436 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COLUMBIA SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ATLANTA GA 34 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) AUGUSTA GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MACON GA 34 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 17
2024-09-27 16:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 271436 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 ...HELENE PRODUCING HISTORIC AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN ATLANTA, AND MUCH OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.1N 83.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF BRYSON CITY NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM NNE OF ATLANTA GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Georgia coast has been discontinued. All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River northward to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 83.8 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 32 mph (52 km/h). A slowdown in forward speed is expected soon, and the storm is forecast to stall over the Tennessee Valley tonight and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Helene is forecast to become extratropical later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 975 mb (28.80 inches). A weather station on Sassafras Mountain reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) with a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h). A coastal observation at Murrells Inlet recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a gust of 46 mph (74 km/h). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to receed along the Florida Gulf Coast and portions of the southeast U.S. coast throughout the day. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring along much of the South Carolina coast, and these conditions will continue for the next several hours. Strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, will also continue as far inland as the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. RAINFALL: Over portions of the Central and Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches leading to total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This rainfall will result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant and record river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in steep terrain across the Southern Appalachians. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today across eastern South Carolina, central and eastern North Carolina, and southern Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Rosado
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Advisory Number 17
2024-09-27 16:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 271436 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 83.8W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 28 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 300SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 420SE 510SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 83.8W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 83.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 37.3N 85.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 37.5N 86.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.5N 86.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N 86.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 37.6N 85.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 83.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics