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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2024-09-26 16:42:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 14:42:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 15:29:22 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane John Graphics
2024-09-26 16:40:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 14:40:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 15:36:10 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane John Forecast Discussion Number 15
2024-09-26 16:39:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 261439 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 John continues to depict a small inner core, with earlier microwave images depicting a small eye feature. Since that microwave pass, the eye feature has become more prevalent on infrared imagery. The UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance ranges from 65 to 75 kt. The subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 65 kt, respectively. Using a blend of the intensity estimates and the continued improved satellite depiction, the intensity is set at 65 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is estimated to be moving northwestward at 310/5 kt. The official forecast is shifted slightly to the right in the near term, which follows recent satellite trends and lies near the latest HCCA consensus aid. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland later today. However, some of the global model fields do linger the system offshore near the coast a little longer, particularly the ECMWF global model. In the long term, a turn back to the west-northwest is anticipated as the system weakens and is steered by the ridge over northern Mexico. The overall environment remains favorable for John to continue to strengthen until landfall with very warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, abundant moisture throughout all levels of the atmosphere. The latest NHC intensity forecast continues to call for strengthening up until landfall and shows a peak intensity of 75 kt, which is slightly lower than previous intensity peak due to the latest forecast showing the system moving inland a little faster than the previous forecast. John has very large rain shield and flooding impacts will extend well outside where the system makes landfall. It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 2. John is forecast to continue strengthening up until landfall, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are imminent. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for portions of the area and tropical storm are ongoing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 17.5N 102.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.0N 102.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST 24H 27/1200Z 18.6N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0000Z 19.2N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z 20.5N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics