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Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 19
2024-09-27 16:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 281 WTPZ45 KNHC 271433 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 John's satellite depiction has banding mainly concentrated on the southern semicircle. The center of the system is very near or just touching the coast of southwestern Mexico. There continues to be burst of convection within the curved bands to the south of the center, and GLM data depicts plenty of lightning within the bands. The various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 55 kt. Given the satellite presentation will lean to the higher side of these estimates, with an initial intensity for this advisory at 50 kt. The center of John is right along the coast, and gradual weakening should continue as the storm moves inland or moves along the coastline. Later today, the high mountainous terrain will disrupt the low-level circulation and a faster rate of weakening should ensue. Beyond the next 24 h, the forecast is highly dependent if the center of John survives the interaction with land, and could dissipate sooner than what is currently forecast. If the surface center remains intact and doesn't dissipate, the remnants should re-emerge over the water in a few days, although models do not show regeneration and keep the system as a remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA and simple consensus aids. John's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/3 kt, and a turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast, provided John survives its interaction with mountainous terrain. The track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and lies to the right of the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 2. John is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions across portions of the Tropical Storm Warnings area through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.8N 103.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1200Z 19.4N 105.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 20.4N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm John Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2024-09-27 16:33:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 545 FOPZ15 KNHC 271432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 34 21 16(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) MANZANILLO 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 7
2024-09-27 16:32:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 271432 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 46.8W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 150SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 46.8W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 47.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 38.1N 44.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 39.4N 40.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 41.0N 38.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 55SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 42.4N 36.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 55SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 43.7N 35.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 55SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 44.8N 33.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 35SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 48.0N 29.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...190NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 52.1N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 80SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 46.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics