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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 8
2024-09-29 10:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 948 WTNT41 KNHC 290839 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 Strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, associated with an upper-level trough over the central subtropical Atlantic, continues to impact the tropical storm. Although deep convection has been intermittently redeveloping near the center, the persistent shear is displacing this shower and thunderstorm activity to the north and northeast of the mostly exposed circulation center. The advisory intensity estimate is held at 40 kt, in agreement with the most recent scatterometer data. This is also supported by a blend of subjective and objective estimates. Center fixes indicate that the motion remains about the same, or at around 305/8 kt. An amplifying mid-level trough over the east-central Atlantic should cause Joyce to turn northward during the next day or so. If Joyce maintains some vertical depth in 2-3 days, it could accelerate north-northeastward ahead of the trough around that time. The official track forecast is the same as the previous NHC prediction and close to the model consensus. Over the next couple of days, Joyce is expected to remain in an environment of strong southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear and an increasingly dry low- to mid-level air mass. Therefore, weakening is anticipated and the system will probably degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 2-3 days. This is consistent with the global model predictions. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 21.3N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 22.0N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 22.7N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 23.4N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 24.5N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 25.6N 48.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z 26.8N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT1/AL112024)
2024-09-29 10:38:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Joyce was located near 21.3, -48.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 8
2024-09-29 10:38:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 ...JOYCE LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 48.1W ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 48.1 West. Joyce is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Joyce is expected to become a depression by early Monday and then a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics