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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 51
2018-10-12 04:50:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120250 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Deep convection has been on the wane with Sergio during the past several hours with a relatively small patch remaining in the northern semicircle. Still, the circulation of Sergio is fairly large and vigorous and will take some time to spin down. The initial wind speed is held at 50 kt, on the high side of the satellite estimates since we haven't had ASCAT data in quite some time. Weakening should commence overnight due to cool waters and increasing shear. Sergio, however, is expected to still be a tropical storm when it moves over the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Thereafter, it should weaken faster while it interacts with the high terrain, then reaching the state of Sonora as a tropical depression and dissipating soon thereafter. Sergio continues moving northeastward at 20 kt. Models are very tightly clustered on this track and speed, staying virtually unchanged until dissipation by 36 hours or so. Note that the 36-hour point is merely a place holder for the remnants of the cyclone. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and Arkansas through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 24.7N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/0000Z 29.6N 109.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/1200Z 32.5N 105.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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