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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-10-15 10:46:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150845 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 500 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 The depression remains poorly organized this morning with only loosely fragmented curved bands observed within the broad circulation. The satellite intensity estimates suggest that the cyclone has not strengthened, and the initial wind speed remains 30 kt, which is near the high end of the Dvorak estimates. The center of the cyclone has been challenging to locate, and the satellite center fixes from TAFB and SAB were about 60 n mi apart. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325 degrees, at 10 kt, but this is of low confidence given the broad nature of the system. The depression is expected to move generally northwestward during the next couple of days steered by a mid-level ridge over western Africa. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast beyond a couple of days when the weak and shallow system is expected to be steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast takes the center of the depression near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today, and this forecast lies near the various consensus models. The environmental conditions are expected to remain generally favorable for about the next 12-24 hours, so there is some chance that the cyclone could become a tropical storm during that time. However, given the large size of the system, significant intensification is not expected. On Wednesday, a pronounced increase in southwesterly wind shear, drier air, and cooler SSTs should end the opportunity for strengthening and cause the cyclone to become a remnant low in about 2 days when the shear is forecast to be very strong. All of the models show the cyclone opening up into a trough within 3 or 4 days. Regardless of whether or not the depression becomes a tropical storm before passing near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 15.6N 20.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 16.4N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 17.5N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 18.4N 24.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 19.4N 25.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z 21.5N 29.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-10-15 10:46:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 150845 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 0900 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SANTA MARIA CV 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152019)
2019-10-15 10:45:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 15 the center of Fifteen was located near 15.6, -20.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 3
2019-10-15 10:45:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150845 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 500 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 ...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 20.9W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor the progress of the depression since a Tropical Storm Warning could be required for a portion of the islands later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 20.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. Weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the Cabo Verde Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in the higher terrain, especially across the eastern portion of the islands. This rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur across the eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-10-15 10:45:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150845 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 0900 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 20.9W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 20.9W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 20.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.4N 22.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 23.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.4N 24.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.4N 25.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 29.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 20.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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