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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-10-14 22:39:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 142039 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 20.2W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 20.2W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 19.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 21.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 22.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.7N 23.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.1N 24.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.4N 26.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 21.4N 29.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 20.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics
2018-10-09 11:54:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 09:54:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 09:54:07 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-10-09 11:52:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT45 KNHC 090952 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 600 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 Geostationary satellite and recent microwave data indicate that the low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean has developed sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression, the fifteenth one of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak 2.0/30 kt classifications from both TAFB and SAB. The depression is expected to strengthen a little during the next 36 to 48 hours while it remains in favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Thereafter, a significant increase in west-southwesterly shear, drier air, and slightly cooler SSTs should cause weakening. The global models all show the depression opening up into a trough by day 5, and the official forecast predicts dissipation accordingly. The initial motion is uncertain since the system just formed a well-defined center, but my best guess is 285/10 kt. The depression is expected to turn northwestward tonight and continue in that general direction on Wednesday and Thursday as it moves toward a broad trough over the central Atlantic, the same one that Leslie is embedded in. After that time, when the system weakens and becomes shallow, a turn back to the left is forecast. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1000Z 10.3N 29.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 10.6N 30.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 11.3N 32.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 12.4N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 13.6N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 16.1N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 17.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-10-09 11:51:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 FONT15 KNHC 090951 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 1000 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 AT 1000Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-10-09 11:51:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 WTNT25 KNHC 090951 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 1000 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 29.7W AT 09/1000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 29.7W AT 09/1000Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 29.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 10.6N 30.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 11.3N 32.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 12.4N 33.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 13.6N 34.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.1N 36.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 17.5N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 29.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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