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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152019)

2019-10-15 16:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 15 the center of Fifteen was located near 15.6, -21.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 4

2019-10-15 16:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 151432 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 21.6W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 21.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday night or Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the eastern and northern Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts could occur across the eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2019-10-15 16:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 151432 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 4

2019-10-15 16:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 151432 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 21.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 21.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 21.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.5N 22.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.7N 23.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 24.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.4N 26.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.6N 30.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 21.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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