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Hurricane JIMENA Graphics
2015-09-01 17:22:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 14:41:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 15:09:26 GMT
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 24
2015-09-01 16:38:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 011438 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015 Enhanced BD-Curve infrared images and an earlier microwave overpass from the Global Precipitation Measurement satellite continue to show the presence of a double eyewall structure with evidence of erosion of Jimena's inner eyewall in the southern portion. Since the overall presentation reveals decay of the eyewall, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt and is based on a blend of the TAFB and SAB Current and Final-T numbers. Although the sea surface temperatures are expected to remain relatively warm ahead of the cyclone through at least day 4, and westerly shear does not appear to affect Jimena until near the end of the period, a marginal thermodynamic atmosphere is most likely the cause of the weakening trend that has commenced. The intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is weighed heavily on the SHIPS model and the HWRF. The initial motion is west-northwestward or, 290/9 kt. Jimena has made its expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now moving toward a growing weakness in the subtropical ridge. A subsequent turn toward the northwestward and north-northwestward is forecast by the 48 hour period and through the end of the period. The NHC forecast is nudged slightly to the right of the previous package and sides with the TVCX multi-model consensus. Jimena has moved into the Central Pacific basin. Therefore, this is the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center. Subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.9N 140.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 17.3N 141.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 17.8N 142.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 18.3N 142.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 18.8N 143.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 19.9N 144.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 21.5N 144.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 23.4N 146.2W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2015-09-01 16:38:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 011438 PWSEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) 20N 145W 34 2 5( 7) 16(23) 16(39) 17(56) 6(62) 1(63) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 13(21) 3(24) 1(25) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 25N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)
2015-09-01 16:37:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA WEAKENS SOME... ...MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 1 the center of JIMENA was located near 16.9, -140.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory Number 24
2015-09-01 16:37:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 011437 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015 ...JIMENA WEAKENS SOME... ...MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 140.1W ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 140.1 West. Jimena is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Jimena is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Jimena. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 2 PM PDT (11 AM HST), under AWIPS header TCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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