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Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Forecast Advisory Number 11

2013-06-08 10:31:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 08 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 080831 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 0900 UTC SAT JUN 08 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR PORTIONS OF COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. A HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...INCLUDING OTHER INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 72.5W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 180SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 72.5W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 73.8W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 44.0N 67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 180SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 46.5N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 210SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 47.5N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N 72.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number advisory andrea forecast

Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Graphics

2013-06-08 05:07:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Jun 2013 02:36:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Jun 2013 03:03:43 GMT

Tags: graphics andrea cyclone posttropical

Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Forecast Discussion Number 10

2013-06-08 04:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 080234 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE CYCLONE BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER OUR BEST CENTER LOCATION ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 30 KT. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION IS LIKELY AND THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN A DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH THE AVAILABLE WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE...STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL OCCURRING FARTHER OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE 30-KT FORWARD MOTION... THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY STILL CLOSE TO 40 KT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING ABSORBED OR MERGING WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITHIN 72 HOURS. THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY ACROSS NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMUNICATED THROUGH LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 38.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 08/1200Z 41.7N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/0000Z 45.4N 63.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/1200Z 46.8N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0000Z 47.0N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number discussion andrea forecast

Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2013-06-08 04:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 08 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 080234 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 0300 UTC SAT JUN 08 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 11 12 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 13 25 42 37 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 85 68 45 47 NA NA NA HURRICANE 2 5 3 4 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 5 2 3 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 35KT 35KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 15(15) 14(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 27(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PTX BASQUES 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 33(33) 19(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) EDDY POINT NS 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X 12(12) 24(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 19(19) 10(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) HALIFAX NS 34 X 58(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) HALIFAX NS 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 51(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) YARMOUTH NS 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONCTON NB 34 X 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ST JOHN NB 34 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) EASTPORT ME 34 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 18 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) HYANNIS MA 34 50 4(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) HYANNIS MA 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 67 3(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) NANTUCKET MA 50 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 27 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) HARTFORD CT 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) NEW YORK CITY 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number speed wind andrea

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA (AT1/AL012013)

2013-06-08 04:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...POST-TROPICAL ANDREA CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 the center of ANDREA was located near 38.5, -75.0 with movement NE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tags: summary andrea cyclone posttropical

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