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Tropical Storm RICK Graphics
2015-11-20 22:08:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Nov 2015 20:38:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Nov 2015 21:04:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm RICK (EP1/EP212015)
2015-11-20 21:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RICK EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 2:00 PM MST Fri Nov 20 the center of RICK was located near 16.3, -111.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm RICK Public Advisory Number 10
2015-11-20 21:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 202032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 ...RICK EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 111.5W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 111.5 West. Rick is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph, and a general west- northwestward motion is expected to continue through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours, but Rick is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by late Sunday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm RICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2015-11-20 21:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 202032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 2100 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Advisory Number 10
2015-11-20 21:32:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 202032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 2100 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.5W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.5W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.6N 112.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.9N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.5N 116.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.4N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 21.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 111.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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