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Tropical Storm RICK Public Advisory Number 7
2015-11-20 03:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST THU NOV 19 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 200239 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 800 PM MST THU NOV 19 2015 ...RICK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 108.1W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 108.1 West. Rick is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-11-20 03:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 200239 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 0300 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 108.1W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 108.1W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.9N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.5N 111.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.2N 112.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 21.6N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 108.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm RICK Graphics
2015-11-19 22:08:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2015 20:42:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2015 21:04:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-11-19 21:41:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST THU NOV 19 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192041 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 PM MST THU NOV 19 2015 Rick is exhibiting a shear pattern, with the low-level center of the cyclone estimated to be near the southeastern edge of a curved convective band over the northwestern semicircle of the circulation. A 1616 UTC ASCAT-A overpass indicated peak uncontaminated winds of 36 kt, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Some further reduction in southeasterly shear over the cyclone should occur tonight or early Friday while other large- scale factors remain generally favorable, which could allow for some additional intensification over the next 24 hours or so. However, the broad nature of the cyclone's circulation shown by the scatterometer data is most likely to result in only slow strengthening before a substantial increase in west-southwesterly shear occurs in about 36 to 48 hours. Even higher shear is expected over Rick by 72 hours once the storm gains more latitude and a trough in the eastern Pacific subtropics nears the cyclone from the west. A rapid decoupling of the cyclone should occur not long after that time, and remnant low status is indicated in 96 hours, though this could occur sooner. The new intensity forecast is is a bit lower than the previous one and slightly lower than the multi-model consensus through 48 hours. ASCAT passes were quite helpful in determining that the location of Rick's low-level center was farther south and west than previously estimated. Those fixes indicate that Rick has turned northwestward with an initial motion estimate of 320/07. A mid-level ridge over mainland Mexico should build north of Rick tonight and tomorrow, resulting in a west-northwestward turn with an increase in forward speed. Once Rick reaches the western periphery of this ridge in about 3 days, a more poleward track is forecast until dissipation. The new track forecast is adjusted back to the left, primarily due the center re-location. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 14.8N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 15.5N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 16.2N 109.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 16.9N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 19.0N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 21.2N 115.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Storm RICK (EP1/EP212015)
2015-11-19 21:41:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RICK TURNS NORTHWESTWARD... ...NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... As of 2:00 PM MST Thu Nov 19 the center of RICK was located near 14.8, -107.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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