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Tropical Storm RICK Public Advisory Number 6

2015-11-19 21:41:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM MST THU NOV 19 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 192041 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 PM MST THU NOV 19 2015 ...RICK TURNS NORTHWESTWARD... ...NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 107.0W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 107.0 West. Rick is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest with some additional increase in forward speed is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight and Friday, followed by weakening on Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, over the northwestern quadrant of the circulation. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Advisory Number 6

2015-11-19 21:41:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 192041 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 2100 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 107.0W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 107.0W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.5N 108.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.2N 109.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.9N 111.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.0N 114.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 21.2N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 107.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Storm RICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2015-11-19 21:41:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 192041 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 2100 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) 1(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 5

2015-11-19 15:57:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191457 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 900 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015 The cloud pattern of the cyclone is better organized than this time yesterday. First-light visible imagery indicates that the low-level center is underneath a circular mass of deep convection, and there has been an increase in banding features and their associated curvature. The increase in organization could be a sign of some decrease of the southeasterly shear that has been affecting the cyclone. A Dvorak intensity estimate of T2.5 from TAFB and an UW-CIMSS ADT value of 2.9 is used to raise the initial intensity estimate to 35 kt. Some further decrease in southeasterly shear is likely through early Friday. With large-scale environmental conditions otherwise largely favorable, intensification is shown through about 24 to 36 hours. The window of opportunity for strengthening should be short- lived though, since west-southwesterly shear is forecast to increase by 48 hours when Rick moves north of the upper-level ridge axis. The shear should become prohibitively high by 72 hours ahead of a shortwave trough in the eastern Pacific subtropics being ejected eastward toward the cyclone. The result should be rapid weakening, and remnant low status is likely by 96 hours, if not sooner. Dissipation is now shown by 120 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the previous one, and shows and earlier peak, with remnant low status indicated sooner. The center has been difficult to locate but seems to be slightly farther east than previous estimates based on a couple of microwave passes and visible imagery. The best estimate of the initial motion is north or 360/06. Global models show mid-level ridging building to the north of the cyclone today, and the depression should be respond by moving more quickly toward the northwest and then west-northwest over the next day or two. Rick should reach the western periphery of this ridge in 3 to 4 days and begin to move more poleward, but will likely dissipate before responding to the trough in the subtropics moving toward it. The new track forecast is right of the previous one, primarily due to the more eastward initial position estimate. Only 3 tropical storms have formed later than this calendar date in the eastern North Pacific since reliable records began in the early 1970s. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 14.7N 105.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 15.2N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 16.2N 108.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 17.1N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 17.7N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 19.0N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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