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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 28

2019-09-24 10:30:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 240829 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.4W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 20SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.4W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.6N 68.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.7N 67.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.7N 64.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.6N 61.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.9N 56.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 35.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 68.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 24/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

2019-09-24 07:29:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 05:29:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 05:29:00 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

2019-09-24 07:28:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JERRY BEGINS WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC... As of 2:00 AM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Jerry was located near 29.5, -68.4 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 27A

2019-09-24 07:28:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 240527 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...JERRY BEGINS WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 68.4W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...90 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected today, followed by a turn to the east- northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (90 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by Wednesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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