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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 22
2019-09-22 22:36:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 222036 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 66.9W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 30SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 66.9W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 66.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.7N 67.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 67.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.8N 67.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 34.4N 63.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 38.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 66.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-22 16:44:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 14:44:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 14:44:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 21
2019-09-22 16:43:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 221443 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Jerry is not well organized on satellite images, with a ragged-looking CDO and limited banding features over the eastern semicircle. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a slight fall in central pressure but the maximum winds remain near 55 kt. The storm is under the influence of westerly shear, and the numerical guidance does not indicated that this shear will relax during the forecast period. Therefore, only slight strengthening is allowed for in the official forecast. This is a little above most of the model guidance. Jerry continues to move north-northwestward, or 340/9 kt, through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days should cause the cyclone to turn north-northeastward to northeastward with some acceleration later in the forecast period. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and is also similar to the corrected consensus model guidance. Key Messages: 1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 25.7N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 26.9N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 28.2N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 29.5N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 31.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 35.0N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 40.0N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 45.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2019-09-22 16:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 221442 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BERMUDA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) 37(56) 1(57) X(57) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-22 16:42:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 22 the center of Jerry was located near 25.7, -66.6 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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