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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 21
2019-09-22 16:42:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 221442 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...JERRY CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 66.6W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 66.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward the northeast late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 21
2019-09-22 16:41:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 221441 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 66.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 75SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 66.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 66.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.9N 67.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 28.2N 67.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 67.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 35.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 40.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 45.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 66.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-22 11:01:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:01:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:25:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 20
2019-09-22 11:01:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220901 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 A very large burst of deep convection has formed near Jerry, but there is no sign from recent microwave data that it is causing any significant change in structure. The center still appears to be on the northwestern edge of the deep convection, which is consistent with a tropical cyclone undergoing moderate-to-strong northwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, a bit above the ASCAT pass from several hours ago, but at that time the center was exposed, so it is reasonable to think the system is a bit stronger than shown in that pass. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should investigate the system around 1200 UTC. Overall, there are a lot of mixed signals with the future strength of Jerry. While the storm should remain over very warm waters, any relaxation of the current shear isn't expected to last very long, and the consensus of the models is that an expected mid-latitude trough interaction should lead to much weakening or strengthening. Thus, little change in strength is shown throughout the period, similar to the last forecast, and only slight weakening is shown at long range as Jerry undergoes the first stages of extratropical transition. The initial motion is slower to the north-northwest, 330/10 kt. The biggest change from the past advisory is shifting the forecast track westward about half a degree in about 48 hours, with more of the models showing that the aforementioned trough interaction will steer the storm more to the left. Jerry should then accelelerate to the northeast ahead of the next mid-latitude trough, and the forecast track is a little faster at long range. Key Messages: 1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 25.0N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 26.3N 67.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 27.6N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 29.0N 68.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 34.0N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 39.0N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 43.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2019-09-22 11:00:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 220900 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 34(44) 2(46) X(46) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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