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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 17
2019-09-21 16:52:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 211452 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 65.0W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 65.0W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 64.3W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.3N 66.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.0N 66.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.4N 67.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 27.8N 67.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.6N 66.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 34.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 38.5N 57.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 65.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-21 10:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 08:56:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:24:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-09-21 10:55:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 210855 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission earlier this morning indicated that Jerry had weakened, with the mid-level eye/center tilted to the east of the low-level center due to some westerly mid-level wind shear. The highest 700-mb flight-level and SFMR surface winds reported were 62 kt and 56 kt, respectively, which supports a lower intensity of about 55 kt. The minimum pressure of 995 mb is based on center dropsonde data of 999 mb with a 38-kt surface wind. Jerry has turned northwestward and the initial motion estimate is now 310/13 kt. Jerry is forecast to continue moving northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge today through Sunday, followed by a northward turn on Monday. By Tuesday, a deep-layer trough is expected to capture Jerry and accelerate the cyclone northeastward in the general direction of Bermuda. There remains excellent agreement among the track models on this developing scenario, and the official track lies close to the tightly packed consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. Jerry is likely to experience fluctuations in intensity during the next 72 hours due to increases/decreases in the vertical wind shear affecting the cyclone. By 96 hours as Jerry moves closer to Bermuda, the cyclone is forecast to come move into the right-rear entrance region of a modest jetstream maximum, not unlike what occurred with former Hurricane Humberto a few days ago. Thus, despite the expected increase in the vertical wind shear to at least 30 kt, re-intensification into a hurricane is forecast similar to a consensus of the global models. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is passing north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 21.4N 64.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 22.7N 65.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 26.0N 67.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 27.3N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 29.8N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 33.2N 63.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 36.7N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2019-09-21 10:54:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 210854 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 55(73) 3(76) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 1(38) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-21 10:54:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 21 the center of Jerry was located near 21.4, -64.0 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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