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Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-18 22:50:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO SHRINKS BUT WINDS INCREASE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Mario was located near 15.0, -111.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 6
2019-09-18 22:50:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 182050 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...MARIO SHRINKS BUT WINDS INCREASE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 111.8W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 111.8 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a decrease in forward speed by tomorrow. Mario is forecast to then slow down and meander slowly northward on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-09-18 22:50:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 182050 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 111.8W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 111.8W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 112.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 112.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.6N 113.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 111.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
2019-09-18 16:34:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:34:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:51:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-09-18 16:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 181433 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Recent microwave imagery shows that the inner core of Mario has become better defined overnight. Both GPM and SSMI overpasses reveal a small low- to mid-level eye feature that is fairly aligned with the low-level center. This places the center well within the convective mass seen in conventional satellite imagery. Based on this recent improvement in organization, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt, in agreement with the latest SAB Dvorak estimate and UW/CIMSS ADT. Mario has managed to fight off moderate northeasterly shear so far, and with the cyclone traversing warm SSTs during the next day or so, additional strengthening is forecast. The new intensity forecast is above the previous advisory in the short term and brings Mario to hurricane strength within 24 hours. After that time, the anticipated slow motion of the storm could cause some upwelling, so little change in strength is shown in the middle portion of the forecast period, followed by slow weakening. Mario is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should continue to steer it northwestward during the next day or so. After that time, the track forecast becomes much more uncertain as some of the dynamical models suggest some binary interaction between Mario and Lorena, with Mario turning northeastward as Lorena passes to the northeast and north of Mario. For now, the NHC forecast anticipates less interaction between the two tropical cyclones, and the official forecast is closest to the ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble mean. The medium- to long-range track forecast for Mario is much more uncertain than normal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.5N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.4N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 17.4N 113.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 18.3N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 20.2N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 22.3N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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