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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2019-09-18 16:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 991 FOPZ14 KNHC 181432 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 15N 110W 34 28 3(31) 3(34) 2(36) 2(38) 1(39) X(39) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 8(17) 4(21) 1(22) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 4( 6) 10(16) 10(26) 14(40) 6(46) X(46) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 2 3( 5) 18(23) 17(40) 14(54) 9(63) 1(64) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 5(18) 2(20) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 15N 115W 34 2 6( 8) 8(16) 6(22) 5(27) 2(29) X(29) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 14(26) 19(45) 8(53) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)

2019-09-18 16:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MARIO STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Mario was located near 14.5, -111.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 5

2019-09-18 16:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 181432 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...MARIO STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 111.0W ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 111.0 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a decrease in forward speed beginning on Thursday. Mario is expected to become nearly stationary from early Friday through early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected and Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 5

2019-09-18 16:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 181432 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.4N 112.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.4N 113.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 113.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.3N 115.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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