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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-09-18 04:46:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 180246 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.3W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.3W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 108.9W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.2N 110.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 113.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.7N 113.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.9N 113.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 90SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 19.4N 115.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 109.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
2019-09-17 22:39:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:39:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:39:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-09-17 22:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 172038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Thunderstorm activity continues to grow over the center of the cyclone, with a banding feature trying to form in the western semicircle. While the subjective estimates are unchanged from earlier, the objective estimates are rising, which matches the increased convective organization trend on satellites. Thus the initial wind speed is bumped up to 35 kt on this advisory. Mario is moving northwestward, with that general motion anticipated for the next two days due primarily to a mid-latitude ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. A slow west-northwest track is forecast at long-range due to the orientation of the weakening ridge. Global models have come into much better agreement overall, and the new NHC track forecast is shifted to the west during the next few days since the models suggest little-to-no interaction with Tropical Storm Lorena. With the guidance showing less interaction with Lorena, it seems probable that further strengthening will occur in a low-shear, warm-water environment. Interestingly, the guidance is actually lower than this morning, although it is difficult to pinpoint any reasons for the change. I've elected to let the morning forecast ride for one more advisory to see if the guidance comes back upward, and the latest wind speed prediction is at the upper end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 12.3N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 16.8N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-09-17 22:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 172038 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 3 36(39) 4(43) 2(45) 3(48) 2(50) X(50) 15N 110W 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 8(18) 4(22) 1(23) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 27(46) 12(58) 5(63) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 8(19) 4(23) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 14(24) 17(41) 10(51) 4(55) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 3(18) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 10(26) 7(33) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-17 22:37:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO, FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Mario was located near 12.3, -108.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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