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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 48
2018-10-11 10:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 110836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.2W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 270SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.2W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.8W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.7N 114.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.4N 111.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.3N 96.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 120.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 48
2018-10-11 10:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 110836 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...SERGIO QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 120.2W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 120.2 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northeastward motion with a continued increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach mainland Mexico by Friday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today, but gradual weakening is anticipated during the next few days. Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding, particularly in the Southern Plains. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by tonight. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch area tonight or early Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-10-11 07:32:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 05:32:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 03:40:27 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-11 07:31:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 11:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 the center of Sergio was located near 20.5, -120.9 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 47A
2018-10-11 07:31:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 110531 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 47A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...SERGIO EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 120.9W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 120.9 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach mainland Mexico late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Thursday, but gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days. Sergio is forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin within the watch areas Thursday night. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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