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Tropical Storm MELISSA Graphics
2013-11-21 16:07:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2013 14:50:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2013 15:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-11-21 15:49:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 211449 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013 MELISSA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING...AS SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT SOME COLD AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION... BUT THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT IT HAS PENETRATED THE INNER CORE. MELISSA WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 17-18 DEGREES CELSIUS LATER TODAY AND THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WEST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD WRAP FURTHER AROUND THE CIRCULATION...CAUSING MELISSA TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS EAST-NORTHEAST AT 28 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD IN WEAKER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 40.0N 34.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 41.1N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 22/1200Z 42.0N 24.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/0000Z 42.2N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/1200Z 41.2N 17.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm MELISSA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2013-11-21 15:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 21 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 211449 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1500 UTC THU NOV 21 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 5 10 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 5 15 26 36 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 92 76 62 49 NA NA NA HURRICANE 3 8 7 5 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 8 7 4 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 X 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 40KT 35KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) PONTA DELGADA 34 6 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm MELISSA Public Advisory Number 13
2013-11-21 15:49:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 211449 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013 ...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.0N 34.8W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.8 WEST. MELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 32 MPH...52 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MELISSA WILL PASS NORTH OF THE WESTERN AZORES LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Advisory Number 13
2013-11-21 15:48:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 21 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 211448 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1500 UTC THU NOV 21 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 34.8W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 28 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 210SE 150SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 360SE 540SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 34.8W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 36.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 41.1N 30.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 210SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 42.0N 24.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 42.2N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...300NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 41.2N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...240NE 60SE 120SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 34.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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