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Post-Tropical Cyclone IAN Graphics

2016-09-16 17:12:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2016 14:55:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2016 15:07:36 GMT

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Post-Tropical Cyclone IAN Forecast Discussion Number 17

2016-09-16 16:54:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 161454 TCDAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 Ian has transitioned into an extratropical low this morning. Any of the remaining weak-to-moderate convection is the northern side of the circulation, with cold air wrapping into the center of the cyclone as it is overtaken by a cold front. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on ASCAT data. Ian should move quickly northeastward and gradually weaken before a larger extratropical low absorbs it in about 2 days. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are based largely on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 48.8N 36.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 17/0000Z 54.0N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/1200Z 59.5N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/0000Z 64.5N 14.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Post-Tropical Cyclone IAN Forecast Advisory Number 17

2016-09-16 16:53:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 161452 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.8N 36.2W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 46 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT.......180NE 210SE 210SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 480SE 540SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.8N 36.2W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.8N 38.6W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 54.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 420SE 300SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 59.5N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 240SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 64.5N 14.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 240SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 48.8N 36.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone IAN (AT5/AL102016)

2016-09-16 16:53:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...IAN ROCKETING NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 16 the center of IAN was located near 48.8, -36.2 with movement NE at 53 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone IAN Public Advisory Number 17

2016-09-16 16:53:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 161452 TCPAT5 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 ...IAN ROCKETING NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...48.8N 36.2W ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM SSW OF REYKJAVIK ICELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 53 MPH...85 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian was located near latitude 48.8 North, longitude 36.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 53 mph (85 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a decrease in forward speed expected on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. The post-tropical cyclone should gradually weaken over the next 36 hours before becoming absorbed by an extratropical low. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Blake

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