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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 16
2016-09-16 10:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160837 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 Cloud tops have warmed near the center of Ian overnight, but the cloud pattern in geostationary imagery still resembles that of a tropical cyclone. A small mid-level eye and a banding convective structure are also seen in a 0417 UTC AMSR-2 overpass from GCOM-W1. The initial intensity is set to 50 kt based on the latest ST3.0 classification from TAFB and the fast forward speed of the cyclone, which now exceeds 40 kt. Ian should become extratropical within 12 hours and then be absorbed by another front near or northeast of Iceland in about 48 hours, as indicated by the latest ECMWF and UKMET model solutions. The AMSR-2 pass mentioned above and a 0544 UTC SSM/I pass were helpful in locating the low-level center of Ian, and the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 040/42. The cyclone should continue moving quickly northeastward ahead of a large upper-level trough until it is absorbed. The new NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the tightly clustered global model guidance. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are based largely on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 45.2N 40.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 50.1N 34.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/0600Z 57.2N 25.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1800Z 61.8N 18.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm IAN Graphics
2016-09-16 10:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2016 08:37:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2016 08:36:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm IAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2016-09-16 10:36:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 160836 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 0900 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Tropical Storm IAN (AT5/AL102016)
2016-09-16 10:36:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IAN RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 16 the center of IAN was located near 45.2, -40.8 with movement NE at 48 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm IAN Public Advisory Number 16
2016-09-16 10:36:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 ...IAN RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...45.2N 40.8W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 1500 MI...2410 KM SW OF REYKJAVIK ICELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 45.2 North, longitude 40.8 West. Ian is moving very quickly toward the northeast near 48 mph (78 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a decrease in forward speed expected on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours, but Ian is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today, and be absorbed by a frontal boundary on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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