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Tropical Storm IAN Graphics
2016-09-16 05:12:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2016 03:06:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2016 03:07:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-09-16 05:06:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160305 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016 Ian has continued to accelerate northeastward within deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front and strong shortwave trough, and this general motion is expected for the next 2 days until the system becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical low. The new track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track and remains near the center of the tightly clustered NHC model guidance, close to the GFS and ECMWF consensus. The initial intensity remains at 45 kt based a 16/0034Z ASCAT-B overpass that contained few 43-kt wind vectors southeast of the well-defined low-level center. Ian is forecast to merge with a baroclinic zone and undergo extratropical transition during the next 12-36 hours, and in the process it is expected to strengthen to at least storm-force before it is absorbed by another extratropical low. The new intensity forecast is the same as the previous advisory based on the global models and guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 42.9N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 46.9N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 17/0000Z 53.3N 31.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1200Z 58.9N 23.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0000Z 63.3N 15.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm IAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2016-09-16 05:01:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 160300 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm IAN (AT5/AL102016)
2016-09-16 05:00:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IAN EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 15 the center of IAN was located near 42.9, -44.9 with movement NE at 53 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm IAN Public Advisory Number 15
2016-09-16 05:00:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160300 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016 ...IAN EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.9N 44.9W ABOUT 1305 MI...2105 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 995 MI...1605 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 53 MPH...85 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 42.9 North, longitude 44.9 West. Ian is moving toward the northeast near 53 mph (85 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Ian is forecast to become a storm-force extratropical low by Friday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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