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Hurricane KATE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-11-11 15:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 111435 TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1100 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015 An SSMIS microwave image from a few hours ago indicated that Kate is well organized, with a large eye feature and a curved band that almost completely surrounds it. During the past few hours, however, the cloud tops have been warming, likely due to its passage over decreasing SSTs. The initial wind speed remains 65 kt, based on the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The vertical wind shear is increasing over Kate, and it is expected to be in excess of 40 kt later today. In addition, a strong mid-latitude trough is approaching the cyclone. Based on these expected conditions, it appears likely that Kate will transition to an extratropical cyclone tonight or early Thursday. After the transition, only a slow decay is predicted due to fairly strong baroclinic forcing. Kate is racing east-northeastward, and the latest initial motion estimate is a speedy 065/39 kt. The hurricane is expected to slow down later today and move erratically northeastward to east- northeastward during the next couple of days when it interacts with, and ultimately absorbs, an extratropical low to its west. A faster northeastward motion is predicted by the weekend after the merger of the weather systems. The new track forecast lies in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. The 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been expanded based on recent scatterometer data. The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 36.8N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 39.0N 55.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 41.1N 50.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/0000Z 41.8N 47.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/1200Z 42.4N 43.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1200Z 48.5N 29.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/1200Z 56.1N 16.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane KATE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2015-11-11 15:34:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 11 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 111434 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1500 UTC WED NOV 11 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Hurricane KATE (AT2/AL122015)
2015-11-11 15:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE KATE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Nov 11 the center of KATE was located near 36.8, -60.5 with movement ENE at 45 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane KATE Public Advisory Number 11
2015-11-11 15:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 111434 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1100 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015 ...HURRICANE KATE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.8N 60.5W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 45 MPH...72 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kate was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 60.5 West. Kate is racing toward the east-northeast near 45 mph (72 km/h). A slower motion toward the east-northeast to northeastward is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Kate is expected to lose tropical characteristics by early Thursday, but remain a powerful cyclone during the next couple of days. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells from Kate will continue to affect Bermuda through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane KATE Forecast Advisory Number 11
2015-11-11 15:34:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 11 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 111434 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1500 UTC WED NOV 11 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 60.5W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 39 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 180SE 180SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 240SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 60.5W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 62.5W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 39.0N 55.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 41.1N 50.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 90SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 41.8N 47.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 420SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 42.4N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 34 KT...480NE 480SE 360SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 48.5N 29.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 480SE 300SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 56.1N 16.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 60.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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