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Tropical Storm AMANDA Public Advisory Number 26
2014-05-29 04:31:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 ...AMANDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 111.3W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST. AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON THURSDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AMANDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY AND A REMNANT LOW BY LATE FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2014-05-29 04:31:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 290231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0300 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 26
2014-05-29 04:31:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 290230 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0300 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.3W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.3W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.7N 110.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.2N 109.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.6N 109.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.3N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 16.5N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 111.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Graphics
2014-05-28 23:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 May 2014 21:31:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 May 2014 21:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-05-28 22:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 282037 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 Amanda continues to gradually lose strength. Deep convection has decreased in coverage during the last several hours, and the cloud tops are not as cold as they were this morning. Dvorak Final T-numbers were 3.0/45 kt and 3.5/55 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. In addition, an ASCAT-B overpass at 1642 UTC showed maximum reliable winds in the 45-50 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 50 kt. The low-level center of Amanda, which appeared somewhat elongated in the scatterometer pass, remains near the southern edge of the main area of thunderstorms. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 15 to 20 kt of south-southwesterly shear. Slow weakening is expected to remain the theme during the next few days due to the combination of shear, dry air, and cooler water along the forecast track. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and in line with most of the guidance. The storm is moving a little faster to the northeast, with the latest initial motion estimate being 035/7. A mid- to upper-level trough to the west of Amanda is expected to keep the cyclone moving northeastward or north-northeastward during the next day or two. After that time, the weakening system is expected to reverse its course and turn southwestward when a low- to mid-level ridge builds to its north. Only slight changes were made to the previous official track forecast and it lies fairly close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.8N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 16.3N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 16.9N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 17.4N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 17.7N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 17.6N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z 16.7N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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