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Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 24
2014-05-28 16:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 281431 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 Although Amanda is producing a considerable amount of deep convection, with cloud tops as cold as -85 C, the cloud pattern lacks organization. Microwave images show that the low-level center is located near the southern edge of the convective area, indicative of the continued influence of southerly shear. The latest Dvorak classifications have decreased slightly, and support lowering the initial wind speed to 55 kt. Vertical cross sections from the GFS model show a pronounced south to north tilt of the vortex due to the shear. Since the environmental winds are not expected to change much during the next 24 hours, additional weakening is anticipated. Even though the shear is forecast to lessen on Thursday, Amanda is expected to continue to lose strength due to dry air entrainment and lower sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the guidance and calls for Amanda to become a remnant low in a few days. The tropical storm is moving slowly northeastward in the flow between a trough to its west and a ridge to its east over Mexico. This continued motion, with some increase in forward speed, is expected during the next day or two. After that time, however, Amanda is forecast to reverse its course and move slowly southwestward when a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the weakening system. The NHC track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, and not too far from the previous official track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 15.0N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 15.5N 111.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 16.3N 110.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 17.1N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 17.5N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 17.7N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z 17.0N 110.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z 16.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-28 16:31:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AMANDA WEAKENS A LITTLE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed May 28 the center of AMANDA was located near 15.0, -112.0 with movement NE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Public Advisory Number 24
2014-05-28 16:31:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 281430 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 ...AMANDA WEAKENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 112.0W ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST. AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND AMANDA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2014-05-28 16:31:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED MAY 28 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 281430 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 1500 UTC WED MAY 28 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 24
2014-05-28 16:30:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED MAY 28 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 281430 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 1500 UTC WED MAY 28 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 112.0W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 112.0W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.5N 111.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.3N 110.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.1N 109.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.5N 108.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.7N 109.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 17.0N 110.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 16.0N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 112.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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