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Hurricane Pablo Graphics
2019-10-27 21:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Oct 2019 20:33:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Oct 2019 20:33:39 GMT
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Hurricane Pablo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-10-27 21:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 272032 PWSAT3 HURRICANE PABLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 2100 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PABLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 17.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Hurricane Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-10-27 21:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 272032 TCDAT3 Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Pablo continues to have a remarkably impressive appearance for a tropical cyclone over such cold waters. The hurricane's eye remains evident in most satellite imagery channels, with a solid ring of cloud tops colder than 50C surrounding it. This maintenance of the deep convection can be attributed to an environment of very cold temperatures aloft, which can allow for the hurricane to remain intact over waters colder than those typically observed. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB remains unchanged from 6 hours ago, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have increased slightly. The initial advisory intensity has been increased to 70 kt, and this could be a little conservative. There are strong low-level easterlies associated with a baroclinic zone and frontal boundary located a couple hundred miles north of Pablo. The hurricane is expected to begin interacting with this zone soon, which combined with even cooler waters should make the cyclone lose its tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours. The system is then expected to become absorbed by the circulation of a much larger low as it approaches from the west in a couple of days. The initial motion is now 020/20 kt. There is significant spread in the model guidance beyond 24 hours, as the ECMWF and UKMET turn the post-tropical cyclone to the northeast, while the remainder of the guidance turns it northwest. The official forecast follows the majority of the guidance and the previous forecast. In this scenario, Pablo is expected to turn northward and slow its forward motion tonight as it approaches the frontal zone. Then, a turn toward the northwest on Monday is expected as the larger low to its west begins to steer the cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 44.7N 17.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 46.5N 16.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 47.7N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/0600Z 49.0N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Hurricane Pablo (AT3/AL182019)
2019-10-27 21:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PABLO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 27 the center of Pablo was located near 44.7, -17.2 with movement NNE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Pablo Public Advisory Number 9
2019-10-27 21:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 272031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Pablo Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 ...PABLO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.7N 17.2W ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM NE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pablo was located near latitude 44.7 North, longitude 17.2 West. Pablo is moving toward the north-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). A turn to the north then northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected tonight through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to begin tonight and Pablo should transition to a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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