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Hurricane Pablo Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-10-27 21:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 272031 TCMAT3 HURRICANE PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 2100 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.7N 17.2W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 40SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 360SE 420SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.7N 17.2W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.1N 17.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 46.5N 16.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 47.7N 17.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 49.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.7N 17.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Pablo Graphics
2019-10-27 15:51:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Oct 2019 14:51:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Oct 2019 14:51:54 GMT
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Hurricane Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-10-27 15:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 271450 TCDAT3 Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Satellite imagery shows that Pablo has continued to maintain a small eye, and that the eyewall cloud tops have recently cooled. In addition, early morning microwave satellite intensity estimates, as well as the CIMSS satellite consensus, indicate that Pablo has become a hurricane. The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt as a blend between the subjective estimate from TAFB and the higher SATCON estimate, and it is possible this is a little conservative. The intensification has occurred while Pablo is over sea surface temperatures of 19-20C, and it is likely that cold mid- to upper-level air temperatures have allowed the cyclone to maintain deep convection and strengthen over water temperatures where tropical cyclones normally weaken. The initial motion is now 030/28. The cyclone is expected to turn northward and slow its forward motion as it approaches a frontal system to the north during the next 12-24 h, and this will be followed by a turn toward the northwest as a large mid-latitude low over the north central Atlantic becomes the main steering mechanism. The track guidance has again shifted a little to the east, and the new forecast track is also nudged a little to the east of the previous track. Like the previous forecast, it lies close to the various consensus models. Pablo should encounter even colder water along the forecast track, and global model guidance suggests it should merge with the frontal system between 12-24 h. This combination should cause Pablo to weaken and become an extratropical cyclone. Thereafter, the system should be absorbed by the much larger low to its west between 48-72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 42.8N 18.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 45.3N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 46.9N 17.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/0000Z 47.9N 18.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/1200Z 49.5N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Pablo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-10-27 15:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 271450 PWSAT3 HURRICANE PABLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 1500 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PABLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Hurricane Pablo (AT3/AL182019)
2019-10-27 15:49:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PABLO BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 27 the center of Pablo was located near 42.8, -18.3 with movement NNE at 32 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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