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Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 12A
2019-09-20 13:42:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 201142 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM JERRY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 59.6W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ENE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 59.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to continue today, but Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently reported a minimum central pressure of 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas later today. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 12A
2019-09-20 13:42:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 201142 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 600 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...CORE OF HURRICANE LORENA APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 109.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and then gradually move away from the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and then either degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in a few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula later today, with tropical storm conditions beginning by this morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across the far southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Hurricane Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-20 11:29:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Lorena was located near 22.3, -108.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Lorena Update Statement
2019-09-20 11:29:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 736 WTPZ65 KNHC 200929 TCUEP5 Hurricane Lorena Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE... Satellite intensity estimates indicate that Lorena has strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h). SUMMARY OF 330 AM MDT...0930 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 108.5W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Jerry Graphics
2019-09-20 10:39:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 08:39:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 08:39:48 GMT
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