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Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-09-20 10:38:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200838 TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 Jerry appears to have stopped strengthening for now. The last reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated that the minimum pressure had risen slightly, and the satellite appearance has become a little more ragged during the past several hours. Radar images sent from the aircraft showed a well-defined inner core, but there are no hints of an eye in geostationary satellite images. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. Both the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Jerry later today, and that data should provide a better assessment of its intensity and structure. Jerry continues to move west-northwestward at a relatively quick pace of 14 kt. This motion is expected to continue for about another 24 hours as the cyclone is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The ridge is expected to weaken and slide eastward late this weekend in response to an eastward-moving trough over the north Atlantic. This change in the steering pattern should cause Jerry to slow down and gradually turn to the northwest and then the north late this weekend and early next week. A faster north- northeastward motion is anticipated toward the end of the forecast period as another trough approaches the system. The models remain in very good agreement on the hurricane passing well to the north of the northern Leeward Island and Puerto Rico late today and Saturday and possibly moving near Bermuda in a little more than 4 days. The only notable change this cycle is a slower northward motion from days 3 to 5 to be in better agreement with the latest models. The intensity forecast is a bit more challenging. The global models show a relatively favorable upper-level wind pattern over Jerry during the next couple of days, but there is also a significant amount of dry air around the cyclone. Although the shear could increase early next week, some of the models show Jerry deepening, likely due to baroclinic effects due to the nearby trough. There is a very large spread in the intensity guidance ranging from SHIPS and LGEM showing little change in strength to pronounced weakening shown by HMON during the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is between those extremes and lies a little above the consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 18.4N 58.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 19.1N 60.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 20.4N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 21.8N 65.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 23.2N 67.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 26.1N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 29.4N 66.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 34.6N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2019-09-20 10:37:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 200837 PWSAT5 HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 42(60) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-20 10:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 20 the center of Jerry was located near 18.4, -58.7 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 12
2019-09-20 10:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 200837 TCMAT5 HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 58.7W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 58.7W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 58.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.1N 60.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 63.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N 65.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N 67.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.1N 68.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.4N 66.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 34.6N 63.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 58.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 12
2019-09-20 10:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200837 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...JERRY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 58.7W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 58.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin later today, but Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas later today. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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